Leading Through Economic Uncertainty: Sticking to the Recipe

Key Takeaways

• In times of economic uncertainty, avoid constantly changing strategy — focus on what already works

• Know your “recipe”: the small number of consistent practices that drive results in your business

• Test ideas before scaling — use small experiments to validate decisions (empirical creativity)

• Build resilience by preparing for downside before it happens (productive paranoia)

• Discipline and clarity outperform speed and reactive decision-making in volatile markets

In the early 2000s, as fuel prices surged and the airline industry lurched from one crisis to another, most carriers were scrambling.

Routes were cut. Costs slashed. Strategies rewritten mid-flight.

Southwest Airlines did something different.

They kept flying.

Not recklessly—but deliberately. Years earlier, they had made a series of disciplined choices: one aircraft type, fast turnarounds, and—critically—fuel hedging. When prices spiked, they weren't immune, but they were prepared.

While others reacted, Southwest executed.

That's the difference.

Today, uncertainty feels everywhere.

Fuel costs rise. Supply chains tighten. Customers hesitate. AI reshapes roles faster than we can redefine them.

It's tempting to respond by changing everything.

But uncertainty has a way of exposing something deeper: not how fast you can react—but how well you understand what actually works in your business.

That's the lesson from Jim Collins and co-author Morten Hansen's research into companies that outperformed their peers by 10x (10xers!) during uncertainty, outlined in Great by Choice.

What the Research Reveals: Four Behaviours of Thriving Companies

Jim Collins' research points to four behaviours worth revisiting. Those that thrive in uncertainty don't predict the future, they don’t change frequently or take big swings (or “cannonballs”, as Collins calls them). They avoid giving themselves whiplash—like Apple did in the 90s—before Steve Jobs returned the company to the principles that made it great in the first place.

Only the Paranoid Survive

Andy Grove, former Chairman and CEO of Intel, believed"only the paranoid survive." So much so he named his biography after it.

Companies that scale despite uncertainty and chaos—the 10xers—know what works (their “recipe”). They don’t abandon it under pressure. They constantly pressure-test risks and opportunities before going all-in, preparing their organisation for shocks before they arrive.

I've unpacked the four practical approaches with examples to leading your organisation through current uncertainties. Approaches that worked for the 10xers, including Intel, Microsoft and Southwest in Collins' research.

First: Know Your Recipe (SMaC)

Every strong business has a recipe.

Not a strategy deck—but a handful of things done consistently over time, that produce results.

Southwest knew theirs. They didn't discover it in a crisis—they built it long before one arrived.

The mistake many leaders make is trying to rewrite the recipe when conditions change.

But if rising fuel or input costs hit your business, the first question is not what should we change?

It's: what is working that we must protect?

Second: Don't Abandon What Works

In volatile markets, activity increases. Meetings multiply. Decisions accelerate.

It feels like progress.

Often, it's just motion.

Collins observed that the best companies show a kind of quiet discipline. They resist the urge to swing wildly. They don't abandon proven models because conditions feel uncomfortable.

If your economics are under pressure—fuel, freight, labour—there may be adjustments to make.

But abandoning your core model too early is rarely one of them.

Third: Test Before You Bet (Empirical Creativity)

That doesn't mean standing still.

The best leaders are not rigid—they are curious. But their curiosity is grounded in evidence.

When costs rise, there are many possible responses: raise prices, change suppliers, redesign operations.

The question is not which idea is best.

The question is: what can we test—quickly, cheaply, and with real data?

A small pricing experiment.

A pilot with an alternative supplier.

A targeted operational change.

Scaling companies are already balancing competing pressures—growth, efficiency, execution. Testing allows you to move forward without betting the company on a guess.

Fourth: Prepare Before You Have To (Productive Paranoia)

Southwest didn't hedge fuel because they knew exactly what would happen.

They hedged because they knew something could.

That's productive paranoia.

Not fear—but preparation.

If your biggest cost increased by another 20%, what would break?

Where does cash get tight?

What assumptions stop holding?

These are uncomfortable questions.

They are also the ones that create resilience.

Final Thought

I don't remember the last fuel crisis—I was in kindergarten.

But I suspect what mattered then is what matters now.

Focus, small steps and routines that drive discipline.

Know your recipe. Stick to what works. Test what might work better before making sweeping changes. Prepare for what could go wrong.

Because in uncertain times, the companies that endure are rarely the most reactive—they are the most disciplined and prepared for what might happen.